Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-10 13.957509 15.939028 18.066111 20.515027 23.252253 26.213054 29.653526
2025-08-17 10.966382 13.653822 16.757291 20.588798 25.173314 30.463139 37.007948
2025-08-24 9.382442 12.354011 15.950218 20.590422 26.383074 33.337041 42.273911
2025-08-31 8.076386 11.191592 15.125220 20.405684 27.250177 35.757537 47.057807
2025-09-07 7.198186 10.426770 14.655682 20.527687 28.384884 38.439799 52.167550
2025-09-14 6.646927 10.019076 14.582848 21.112240 30.096383 41.889019 58.376323
2025-09-21 5.927942 9.290640 13.989021 20.908327 30.687498 43.838021 62.642262
2025-09-28 5.103793 8.320231 12.960472 19.994090 30.201813 44.258835 64.806051
2025-10-05 4.812659 8.108832 12.992775 20.574687 31.820610 47.611166 71.108529
2025-10-12 4.511372 7.848602 12.922615 20.982293 33.188190 50.645710 77.066098
2025-10-19 4.112769 7.393827 12.515444 20.842018 33.719251 52.480616 81.356799
2025-10-26 3.734356 6.934559 12.060815 20.586247 34.042115 53.999712 85.218873
2025-11-02 3.440312 6.596260 11.781816 20.599320 34.794182 56.214516 90.248706
2025-11-09 3.208080 6.343167 11.621359 20.787856 35.823378 58.884264 96.065300
2025-11-16 2.959024 6.034499 11.340012 20.749573 36.472452 60.977092 101.057540
2025-11-23 2.712073 5.705253 10.996024 20.577354 36.883151 62.700063 105.525596
2025-11-30 2.535551 5.490407 10.832704 20.695438 37.764678 65.182513 111.250513
2025-12-07 2.444385 5.431153 10.940443 21.285918 39.457198 69.015783 119.239626
2025-12-14 2.247918 5.144770 10.612209 21.079931 39.776676 70.626573 123.709234
2025-12-21 1.976768 4.679408 9.914699 20.159259 38.804599 70.063201 124.608532
2025-12-28 1.915969 4.646502 10.034941 20.744007 40.495483 73.981672 132.991966
2026-01-04 1.838049 4.569496 10.063003 21.154593 41.889041 77.442080 140.719124
2026-01-11 1.704539 4.357974 9.809723 21.013292 42.274083 79.191307 145.622440